Rachel Ray is fed up. In December the young scientist moved from a rented inner-city flat into a new home in Altona Meadows in Melbourne’s burgeoning outer west, one of Australia’s fastest growing regions.

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Her problem is that she works at the Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, just north of the CBD.

Getting to work then back home is now a daily grind: a bus to the Laverton train station, a train to North Melbourne, and another bus to Parkville.

On the best of days it takes an hour. Increasingly, as the trains and roads overflow, it is much longer; especially if she leaves work a little late.

Ray often finds herself at a cold dark bus stop, waiting. “It feels quite isolated; sometimes you just feel a bit ….’’ a bit like calling a cab; which is what Ray often does.

In the few months since she moved and as yet more housing estates have sprung up around her, Ray has seen the traffic and public transport squeeze intensify.

Improvements to rail services have barely registered as passenger numbers boom.

Like so many in Australia’s burgeoning major cities, Ray is increasingly of the view that current levels of population growth are too great.

“The roads and public transport are showing clear signs that we can’t cope with this growth, especially in the western suburbs.”

Are there too many people? “Yes,” she says.

Ray is no raving racist or environmental warrior. She just wants to get to work in reasonable time.

She is one of many daily grappling with the reality of the unprecedented population growth that has seen Australia’s population hit 25 million, decades ahead of earlier projections. More than half that growth has been in Sydney and Melbourne.

The roads and public transport are showing clear signs that we can’t cope with this growth, especially in the western suburbs.

Rachel Ray

But in our public debate, such frustrations about population and planning tend to get conflated with arguments about race, religion and refugees.

This was all too apparent this week when Queensland Senator Fraser Anning evoked the “final solution” as he questioned Australia’s immigration intake and praised the white Australia policy.

Why do we find it so difficult to discuss population? And how do we tackle issues of growth without succumbing to racist scaremongering on the one hand and the fear of being accused of racism, on the other?

Ruddock's rules

Few from the federal politics know the issues as well as former Howard-era immigration minister, Philip Ruddock.

In 1988 he was one of a handful of Liberals to cross the floor to vote with the Labor government after John Howard raised the idea of cutting Asian immigration. And he was immigration minister during the Tampa, children-overboard saga in 2001, and an election dominated by asylum seeker issues.

As minister he oversaw a dramatic increase in permanent migration, skilled immigration in particular. He says Australians will support the system if they believe it is not being abused, whether it is the family reunion, refugee or skilled components of the program.

“We are a remarkable country because we have people from all over the world, every race, every religion, every culture,’’ he said.

“If the view is that cultural diversity is a problem we ought to have some of the most significant problems in the world, and we don't.’’

But that is not the impression of our cities that some of the current crop of Coalition MPs seem intent on projecting.

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, in particular, been controversial in his observations, including about the fast-tracking of immigration for “persecuted” white South Africans and strong rhetoric against “African gangs” in Victoria.

His comments are widely viewed as contradicting the long post-war consensus on immigration, although students of our immigration history often points to the Howard years as a break with that consensus, when refugees were painted as a part of the problem.

Labor says the contributions from the likes of Dutton have not helped sober discussion of population and planning.

Incoming Labor national president Wayne Swan says key Coalition figures are using race to distract from the broader concerns in the public about economic uncertainty.

“So as you have stagnating living standards and incredible pressure on working people, which is deliberately caused by government economic policy, conservatives try to use race ... You’ve got the populist right around the world engaging in this sort of stuff and it goes as high as the American president, who, to some extent validates it and authorises it.’’

For its part the ACTU has mixed views about immigration. The day after Peter Dutton revealed a proposed reduction to permanent immigration numbers in May, the ACTU and big business joined forces to call for the retention of the permanent program.

However it has reservations about some parts of the temporary migration program.

ACTU president Michele O'Neil blamed the Turnbull government for a toxic debate on immigration and added: “It’s time to come together to end it.”

University of Technology Sydney’s professor of social economics, Jock Collins, says race has been a periodic feature of the debate since well before federation.

'Since the Tampa election in 2001 the conservatives have been willing to play the race card,’’ he says.

'But, as much as people will exploit the cracks and the racist psyche of Australian history the majority of people live their lives in a very open and accepting way.’’

The silent majority

Despite a history that includes the White Australia policy, regular outbreaks of xenophobia and a political preoccupation with refugees in boats, the OECD says few countries have managed immigration as well as Australia.

For decades strong paternalistic leaders like Menzies, Calwell, Holt, Whitlam, and Fraser, oversaw a big immigration program that celebrated newcomers, and discouraged dissension.

Australia grew to be not only supportive of immigration but economically dependent upon it, often uncritically accepting whatever level of growth was decided behind closed doors in Canberra.

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Key interest groups and big business in particular, were beneficiaries and advocates. “Progressives” in the labour and green movements, committed to multiculturalism and care for refugees, rarely questioned immigration levels, even on environmental grounds.

The Greens party for instance, has been criticised by the likes of advocacy group Sustainable Population Australia, for supporting high immigration at the expense of the environment.

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Now Australia's growth is among the highest in the rich world. And, unlike other countries, it is focused on just two cities, Sydney and Melbourne. So strong is the growth in Melbourne that, if left unchecked, it would have a London-sized population by mid-century.

It's in this context that we are belatedly acknowledging a problem that has been obvious too many for decades. It’s not an ideological issue: it’s simply that our cities are buckling under the pressure especially in housing and transport.

Where there is public transport, it's packed. For those without it, travel times have blown out over the last decade, a major burden for commuters and their families. Expensive housing is another cost of population growth, not helped by a government retreat from public housing provision.

There's also the spiralling costs of services such as water, especially when the sustainable use of natural supplies is exhausted and technological alternatives like desalination become necessary.

Recent research commissioned by the Property Council of Australia highlights the celebrated liveability of Australia’s major cities faced decline without major improvements. Unlike many European cities, Melbourne and Sydney were ill equipped to deal with high population growth.

Property Council chief executive Ken Morrison said there needed to be better planning, coordination and investment in infrastructure.

'Our brand is better than our product,’’ he said. “You can get away with that for a while but in the end you will be found out.’’

Melbourne this week lost its long-held mantle as most liveable city in the world, to chilly Vienna.

A taboo subject

Earlier this year leading think tank the Grattan Institute, broached - hands wringing - what was almost a taboo subject: immigration.

In a major study if found that housing supply has not kept up with demand, an important factor in the slump in affordability.

Population growth - which in Australia is mainly made up of migration - outstripped construction of new dwellings across Australia between 2006 and 2016, especially in NSW, Victoria and Queensland. Nor had infrastructure kept up with growth.

In a confronting conclusion, Grattan found that if planning was not improved to allow for more and better located housing, the federal government should pull back on migration numbers.

Grattan chief executive John Daley acknowledges that the discussion of immigration levels was something the institute did with great care.

“We should be able to discuss the level of population and immigration without it becoming a matter of banning Muslims and Asians.’’

Unfortunately, says Daley, as soon as immigration is mentioned the discussion descends into a debate over big immigration or none.

“We need to grow up enough to say, ‘It’s not just a choice between the current growth and zero growth’. We could cut immigration a little and still have a generous intake.”

Daley says the debate has been made difficult by major interests reliant on growth.

“There are also very powerful forces that support immigration being as high as possible. Companies like Telstra and the big supermarkets are very geared to it. Most big businesses make more revenue if the population grows faster.’’

Federal and state governments also tend to like immigration because it’s good for reported GDP growth, and a means of masking otherwise weak economies.

What to do?

Public rows about African gangs, Muslims and Asians help divert attention from the fact that governments, federal and state have failed to plan for the growth they have allowed and encouraged.

While the postwar growth has continued, governments long ago stopped guiding it, withdrawing from housing, from infrastructure and planning.

The Turnbull government is now considering the calls, including from backbenchers such as WA's Dean Smith, for a population policy. Australia has no such policy, effectively relying on its immigration program as a default policy.

The government has confirmed that for months it has been looking at a strategy to continue generous levels of immigration by directing migrants to settle in country towns and regional cities.

Daley, though, is sceptical. He points out that, increasingly, job opportunities are in knowledge and service industries in central Sydney and Melbourne. He says the idea of directing migrants to regional areas is unlikely to work.

“If 117 years of Australian history shows us anything it is that governments can move people to the jobs but you can't move jobs to the people.’’

Property Council chief executive Ken Morrison says Australia’s largest cities would continue to take much of the population growth, even if government policy changed.

“The undercurrent to the current debate is, it’s as if we are forcing people into big cities; we are not forcing people into Melbourne, it’s a great city it’s where jobs are.’’

All the more reason, says the Grattan Institute for a population policy based on a thorough analysis that looks at the capacity of our cities and environment to handle growth.

In a landmark report from 2016 the Productivity Commission concluded that population and immigration needed to be taken out of the back offices of Canberra bureaucrats.

It called for a population policy based on economic, social and environmental impacts - “all the relevant dimensions of societal wellbeing” - and the differing local impacts of growth across the country.

And it recommended a full, public, five yearly review of that policy. It would no doubt be a brutal, regular row, but something a grown-up country of immigrants should be able to handle.

If the result was buses running on time, and trains more often, Rachel Ray could probably stand the political heat.

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Royce Millar is an investigative journalist at The Age with a special interest in public policy and government decision-making.

Ben Schneiders is an investigations reporter at The Age with a background reporting on industrial relations, business, politics and social issues. A two-time Walkley Award winner, he has been part of The Age’s investigative unit since 2015.

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